An Experiment with Hierarchical Bayesian Record Linkage

In record linkage (RL), or exact file matching, the goal is to identify the links between entities with information on two or more files. RL is an important activity in areas including counting the population, enhancing survey frames and data, and conducting epidemiological and follow-up studies. RL is challenging when files are very large, no accurate personal identification (ID) number is present on all files for all units, and some information is recorded with error. Without an unique ID number one must rely on comparisons of names, addresses, dates, and other information to find the links. Latent class models can be used to automatically score the value of information for determining match status. Data for fitting models come from comparisons made within groups of units that pass initial file blocking requirements. Data distributions can vary across blocks. This article examines the use of prior information and hierarchical latent class models in the context of RL.Comment: 14 pages, 0 figure

Discussion of "Calibrated Bayes, for Statistics in General, and Missing Data in Particular" by R. J. A. Little

Discussion of "Calibrated Bayes, for Statistics in General, and Missing Data in Particular" by R. Little [arXiv:1108.1917]Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-STS318B the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Comment: Bayesian Checking of the Second Level of Hierarchical Models: Cross-Validated Posterior Predictive Checks Using Discrepancy Measures

Comment: Bayesian Checking of the Second Level of Hierarchical Models [arXiv:0802.0743]Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-STS235B the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Observations of thunder with the Arecibo VHF radar

An experiment was carried out at the Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico in August 1985 to study Doppler velocities in a thunderstorm environment with a beam pointed 2.5 degrees off-vertical. Researchers detected two types of echoes associated with lightning. The first was associated with scattering from the lightning channel itself and had characteristics similar to those observed previously with meteorological radars. The second appeared to be due to scattering from the turbulence organized by phase fronts of an acoustic wave generated by lightning. The observations were consistent with a wave traveling at a velocity near the speed of sound and having a vertical phase velocity component of 40 m/s

Hydrolysed formula and risk of allergic or autoimmune disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To determine whether feeding infants with hydrolysed formula reduces their risk of allergic or autoimmune disease. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis, as part of a series of systematic reviews commissioned by the UK Food Standards Agency to inform guidelines on infant feeding. Two authors selected studies by consensus, independently extracted data, and assessed the quality of included studies using the Cochrane risk of bias tool. Data sources Medline, Embase, Web of Science, CENTRAL, and LILACS searched between January 1946 and April 2015. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies Prospective intervention trials of hydrolysed cows’ milk formula compared with another hydrolysed formula, human breast milk, or a standard cows’ milk formula, which reported on allergic or autoimmune disease or allergic sensitisation. Results 37 eligible intervention trials of hydrolysed formula were identified, including over 19 000 participants. There was evidence of conflict of interest and high or unclear risk of bias in most studies of allergic outcomes and evidence of publication bias for studies of eczema and wheeze. Overall there was no consistent evidence that partially or extensively hydrolysed formulas reduce risk of allergic or autoimmune outcomes in infants at high pre-existing risk of these outcomes. Odds ratios for eczema at age 0-4, compared with standard cows’ milk formula, were 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.07; I2=30%) for partially hydrolysed formula; 0.55 (0.28 to 1.09; I2=74%) for extensively hydrolysed casein based formula; and 1.12 (0.88 to 1.42; I2=0%) for extensively hydrolysed whey based formula. There was no evidence to support the health claim approved by the US Food and Drug Administration that a partially hydrolysed formula could reduce the risk of eczema nor the conclusion of the Cochrane review that hydrolysed formula could allergy to cows’ milk. Conclusion These findings do not support current guidelines that recommend the use of hydrolysed formula to prevent allergic disease in high risk infants

Zariski Closures and Subgroup Separability

The main result of this article is a refinement of the well-known subgroup separability results of Hall and Scott for free and surface groups. We show that for any finitely generated subgroup, there is a finite dimensional representation of the free or surface group that separates the subgroup in the induced Zariski topology. As a corollary, we establish a polynomial upper bound on the size of the quotients used to separate a finitely generated subgroup in a free or surface group.Comment: Final version. To appear in Selecta Mat

Observations of vertical velocity power spectra with the SOUSY VHF radar

A data set taken with the SOUSY VHF radar from October 28 to November 13, 1981 was used to calculate the power spectrum of the vertical velocities directly from the vertical beam measurements. The spectral slopes for the frequency spectra have been determined out to periods of several days and have been found to have values near -1 in the troposphere and shallower slopes in the lower stratosphere. The value of -1 is in agreement with the value found by Larsen et al. (1985) and Balsley and Carter (1982) in the range from a few minutes to 1 hr

Context dependence of the event-related brain potential associated with reward and punishment

The error-related negativity (ERN) is an event-related brain potential elicited by error commission and by presentation of feedback stimuli indicating incorrect performance. In this study, the authors report two experiments in which participants tried to learn to select between response options by trial and error, using feedback stimuli indicating monetary gains and losses. The results demonstrate that the amplitude of the ERN is determined by the value of the eliciting outcome relative to the range of outcomes possible, rather than by the objective value of the outcome. This result is discussed in terms of a recent theory that holds that the ERN reflects a reward prediction error signal associated with a neural system for reinforcement learning